Hatters CEO reveals how Luton drew on the data when appointing new boss Edwards

Luton chief executive Gary Sweet revealed just how big a part the data played in the appointment of manager Rob Edwards as the man to replace Nathan Jones at Kenilworth Road recently.

In recent years, the Hatters, like a number of sides up and down the footballing echelon, have taken a far closer look at the analytical side of the game, including appointing Jay Socik as head of recruitment analysis back in February 2021.

Even before Jones decided to leave Bedfordshire for Southampton on November 10, Sweet and the Luton hierarchy had been planning for his possible departure, collecting data on a pool of potential successors should the Welshman, who had led Town to the play-offs last term, ever find an opportunity come up that was too good to turn down.

When that did happen, the Saints giving him his dream of heading to the Premier League, a detailed look at the statistics eventually led to Town going for Edwards, who was out of work following his sacking by fierce rivals Watford.

Discussing the procedure of selecting the right candidate, Sweet said: “A lot of it was about the process, so we started a long time ago collecting data, a little bit like we now recruit players.

“We monitor managers, coaches, other people, and as soon as we knew that it was the likelihood that Nathan would be going to Southampton then we started to draw on that data, draw on that knowledge and build an objective plan going forward about who that would be to replace Nathan.

“Of course they’re big shoes to fill, he’s done a great job here, but with Rob, what we saw is someone who we felt, we needed someone a little bit different.

“When there’s a vacancy there’s always an opportunity to change, just to I daresay, improve, to take time, but to go further and be a bit more ambitious.

“With Rob we felt we had that and the way that Rob likes to play football is the way we would like to play.”

A closer look at the stats show that Edwards, who also managed AFC Telford for a season back in June 2017, really made people sit up and take attention of his talents when at Forest Green, winning the League Two title and named Manager of the Year, completing a highly successful 12 months in charge at the New Lawn Stadium.

He then had a brief stint with Watford, the Hornets swiftly pulling the trigger in only the manner they can after just over four months, but looking at his last two jobs, Edwards’ numbers quickly alerted Luton’s recruitment team.

The former Wales international managed an average of over 52 per cent possession during his time at both clubs, while he possessed the best counter attacking team in both divisions too.

He picked up 1.8 points per game at Rovers, Jones managing 1.91 when he led Town to promotion from the fourth tier back in 2018, while with news that will be music to the ears of Luton duo Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo, Edwards teams were in the top three for crosses into the box.

Going into even more detail, and stick with this, the xG (expected goals) per shot faced in short average chance quality a team gives up, in layman's terms, not conceding big chances too often, saw Rovers the top for this in League Two, while Watford were the second best in his brief Hertfordshire spell.

It was an area Jones had Luton sitting in the top three during his previous two seasons as well, as Sweet went into detail on just how big a role the particulars played in opting for Edwards, admitting it was a step away from their usual approach when bringing a new man in.

He continued: “The way Rob managed particularly Forest Green was not dissimilar to the way we had a promotion or two at those levels, but the data is very, very synonymous to the way we play, the squad of players we’ve got, but the direction we want to take.

“We’ve never done that for previous managerial positions, we’ve looked at statistics, slightly different statistics and you can look at various elements of data, but we delved deep, as we do with players.

"It’s a bit more tricky with managers as they haven’t got the ball at their feet, it’s a bit tricky doing it with coaches that don’t manage, but you can see some similarities.

"You can pick on quite a lot of data where coaches might have followed two or three managers, so we have a way of doing it and it’s a sound process.

"We’re really lucky to have the people on board that are working with us to develop that model for us and for Rob as it’s highlighted him to us, attracted him to us.”

Sweet did go on to admit that they didn’t take Edwards based purely on his numbers though, adding: “It's not data led.

"Data is supporting evidence that backs up our decision that when we meet someone and we feel a kinship with someone, we feel connected to someone, we feel he’s a right person character-wise for our football club then that’s when it works.”